GLOBAL CENTRE STAGE
The Saudi-US Alliance
President Trump may be facing one of the toughest and
biggest US foreign policy crises since the overthrow of the
Shah of Iran in 1979. He is deeply invested personally in
the Saudi leader, making Riyadh his fi rst overseas trip. After
he took offi ce, the Kingdom nearly tripled its spending on
lobbying in Washington, developed a rapport with Trump’s
son-in-law and senior adviser Jared Kushner and even
proposed a $110 billion arms deal.
From the lens of foreign policy, the alliance, while never
comfortable, is old and deep. For decades, the US has used
the Gulf to shape and direct its imperial interests in the
larger Eurasian economy. Thanks to the trillions in military
investment, the Saudis control the spigot through which
roughly 24 percent of the world’s daily oil supply fl ows.
Shared concerns extend to mediating role in the Israel-
Palestine confl ict and zealous opposition to Iran. Without
the Saudi’s leadership role, America would fi nd its monopoly
severely impaired. This has resulted in the US largely
overlooking the Saudi’s misconduct in cases of human rights
violations and its role in Yemen.
The Khashoggi incident threatens this alliance. He was an
English speaking journalist whose free speech and freedom
of press were attacked. His story was relatable and reached
the heart of American values in ways that the circumstances
of other Saudi activists did not. The US State Department has
revoked the visas of Saudi offi cials. The Senate Committee
on Foreign Relations has decided to set in motion the Global
Magnitsky Act, which could produce sanctions that would
freeze the funds of any foreign offi cials implicated in the
crimes. CIA Director Gina Haspel is in Turkey to investigate
the matter while Trump has agreed to work with the US
Congress to determine the US response.
But there are limits to this response. A look at the history
of the region shows that even very high profi le cases have
had a subdued eff ect on how willing US politicians are to
sanction to Saudi Arabia. To put things in better perspective,
on November 5, the US will re-impose sanctions targeting
any customers of Iran’s oil markets. The success for this
will rest on Saudi Arabia’s ability to serve the businesses
and countries no longer able to trade with Tehran. Experts
believe that the ideal path that will follow is that Congress
would impose minor sanctions on Riyadh. In return, the
Kingdom will do something symbolic, such as withdrawing
their diplomats from the US. Any action taken would be short
lived, things will blow over and things will go back to how
they were before.
The Future of Saudi Arabia
Jamal Khashoggi’s death may be historic but that does not
mean that the response to it will be, which is unsurprising.
This probably will not be the event that tangibly changes the
rest of the world’s tolerance for Saudi Arabia’s atrocities.
Imposing real economic sanctions that would actively harm
the relationship appears to be off the table for America,
irrespective of the rhetoric and attention dedicated to this
individual tragedy might suggest.
Erdogan, on the other hand is likely to continue to push
the Saudi leadership in the spotlight as he appears to have
a lot to gain from Riyadh’s fractured global image. There is
a strong possibility that the crown prince may be asked to
step down but nothing beyond such. The biggest takeaway
though, must be the huge fault line Middle East security and
strategic spheres of infl uence that has once again been made
visible via Jamal Khashoggi’s death.
*Aashna John is a Research Associate with the Delhi
Policy Group. She writes with a strong focus on US foreign
policy, Middle East dynamics and non-traditional security.
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10 • Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary Diplomatist • Vol 6 • Issue 10 • Oct-Nov 2018, Noida