Knowledge Partner
Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary Diplomatist
Image 21: President Barack Obama meets with Burmese OpposiLon Leader Aung San Suu Kyi in the Oval Office, Sept. 19, 2012
Lessons
Addi*onally, the Myanmar military’s growing *es with Western countries,
especially the US, has led Beijing to maintain an ambiguous posi*on on the
process. That somewhat changed with the Na*onal League for Democracy
(NLD) coming to power and Suu Kyi aQemp*ng to improve bilateral *es. In
2016, China persuaded the Kachin and Shan EAOs to join the May 2017
Panglong Conference. And due to Chinese pressure, even the Tatmadaw
relented on its ini*al clause that all EAOs aQending the peace conference
must have signed the NCA. The FPNCC members were flown in for the
conference in a chartered plane from Kunming to Naypyidaw to par*cipate in
the conference. China, indeed, holds the master key and the future en*rely
depends upon how China perceives its na*onal interest vis-à-vis the peace
process.
Myanmar thus provides a glaring example of un-ini*a*on on the tenets of
preven*ve diplomacy. A bulk of the interna*onal as well as regional
actors has paid only lip service to the progress of na*onal reconcilia*on
in the country. The domes*c actors have remained too divided, and their
interests, irreconcilable. This has allowed China to fill the vacuum and
effec*vely expand its sphere of influence. It is a different maQer that
none of the present-day actors, both domes*c and beyond, who are
ac*vely involved in the peace process are in a posi*on to guarantee the
conclusion of the peace process in the near future.
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