WINTER 2016-2017 to the incentive .
At the time of writing , the REPP team had begun analyzing information about the households that responded to the voucher . Over the next year , they will also review household energy usage and social and economic impacts between the study ’ s connected and unconnected households .
Two other experts in the field , Maximo Torero and Tanguy Bernard from the International Food Policy Research Institute , used this approach in a smaller randomized study in Ethiopia . So far , these appear to be the only studies to attempt randomized impact evaluation on infrastructure development with this tactic . Torero and Bernard ’ s work in Ethiopia exposed another possible reason why : researchers have little to no control over infrastructure delivery .
“ The main problem we faced [ in Ethiopia ] was that , due to technical reasons , 10 of the 20 planned villages could not be electrified during the course of the study , affecting the study ’ s overall statistical power ,” the authors note in one of their early reports .
This has not been an issue for the Kenya REPP so far , but Podolsky says it is nevertheless a logistically and financially intensive study that has exposed the challenges of research on this scale in remote places . Podolsky reflects that had they not been working in direct partnership with the Kenyan government , the project would have been unfeasible .
“ Even if this was not an infrastructure project where you need the support of government , these interventions are not easily done . It is a very pricey proposition to set everything up , gather the surveys and analyze the data ,” he says .
Changing Course When the Berkeley REPP team began laying the groundwork for the Kenya study in 2012 , they had no intention of partnering with the government — nor were they interested in studying grid infrastructure at a national level . Instead , the RCT was meant to focus on another type of technology : microgrids .
Microgrids — or small , decentralized power systems — have been gaining traction as a way to improve power access to the world ’ s energy poor , particularly as more infrastructure is being privately financed . The team initially wanted to work with a private sector partner to set up and record the impacts of 40 village microgrids . Six months into their field assessment , however , they realized the project would not be feasible .
“ The microgrids we wanted to install were best suited for communities with high population densities ,” Lee explains . But density is sparse in rural Kenya . The team then found that there were few truly off-grid villages ; rather , villagers were not connected to the many power lines nearby .
The team ’ s discovery of what they call the “ under-grid ” population compelled them to reframe their problem statement . “ The problem isn ’ t a dichotomy between ongrid and off-grid ; there are also people living ‘ under-grid ’,” Lee says . “ We hope to change the [ way ] we view the energy poverty problem because the policy implications for [ these ] communities are different .”
By drawing from the limited research available , including the Ethiopia study , the REPP team re-spun their project to better understand what prevented rural Kenyans from requesting an electricity connection . Hypothesizing that cost was a critical barrier , the Berkeley researchers adopted the voucher incentive approach with the intention of analyzing cost-demand curves of connectivity .
“ What started as an impact study on rural electrification shifted to a project about cost and demand economics for supplying access to energy ,” Lee says .
A Case for Grid Investment ? This kind of rigorous analysis and insight could have a significant impact on the world ’ s least electrified continent and beyond , particularly as population growth intensifies the need for infrastructure development .
In Kenya , for example , the government announced a mass electrification program to connect every household within 600 meters of a transformer by 2020 . Its strategy will look to replicate the REPP team ’ s model by connecting groups of households at a discounted rate , which is more cost-effective than line-by-line extension , Podolsky notes .
“ Grid technology is not the most exciting , but it may well be the most effective way to get power to people ,” he says . The REPP team hopes to be able to advise the government on the best price point to do that .
Findings from this study could also affect other countries in Africa , which view Kenya as a regional leader . Seeing whether Kenya ’ s initiative achieves positive economic benefits could motivate more informed ( and speedier ) investment elsewhere .
In a 2014 report on the impact of rural electrification , Torero identifies “ profit maximization ” as one important area where research could support infrastructure development . “ That is , taking into account that more remote areas might have high productive potential that would be realized by electrification ,” he writes , ultimately making investments profitable .
Podolsky says that being able to present a clear picture of the grid ’ s value proposition is exactly what the REPP team hopes to achieve .
“ It might prove that grid connectivity requires large investments , but if the benefits are there , it would be a netpositive endeavor ,” he says . “ Or we may find that those impacts aren ’ t there — that information is just as valuable .”
Jessica Pothering is the managing editor of ASME Demand . This article was originally featured in the Spring 2016 issue of DEMAND . Read more at https :// www . asme . org / about-asme / demand .
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