Decisive action required
Scenario 3
Productivity-Enhancing
• Overall real GDP rises to 5.3%, above the
target of 5% as set out in the National
Development Plan
• The economy’s size more than doubles
between 2015 and 2030 and is 25% larger
than in the Business as Usual scenario
• Savings as a share of GDP is 20.8%
in 2030, which allows SA to reap
a somewhat higher dividend from its
large working-age population.
Scenario 4
Accelerated Educational Attainment
• Scenario is identical to Productivity-
Enhancing except that the working-age
population with at least nine years of
schooling rises from 68% to 72% by 2030
• Savings as a share of GDP rise to 21% by
2030
• Overall real GDP and real GDP per capita
rise at an average of 5.4% and 4.8% per
annum, respectively.
3. World Bank, 2015. South Africa Economic Update:
Jobs and South Africa’s changing demographics.
Washington, DC: The World Bank. http://documents.
worldbank.org/curated/en/479161467998767997/
South-Africa-economic-update-jobs-and-South-
Africa-s-changing-demographics
The World Bank concludes that with
almost 70% of the South African
population currently of working age (15
to 64 years), the country is experiencing
a demographic dividend with the window
of opportunity for rapid economic growth
wide open. This window is likely to
remain open for the next 50 to 60 years,
but as a result of high unemployment
levels, especially among young people,
and a serious lack of job creation and
skills development, South Africa has not
been successful in capitalising on its
demographic dividend so far.
Between 2000 and 2016, about
9.9 million people were added to the
working-age population of whom only
37% found jobs. Another 9 million
could be added to the working-age
population between now and 2050. In
the next 15 years alone, the working-age
population is expected to expand by
280 000 per annum.
‘These people will have to find
productive jobs if South Africa is to
harvest the potential boost to growth
and living standards before it faces the
rising burden associated with a rapidly
growing elderly population.’ (World
Bank, 2015:5).
However, as the World Bank scenarios
show, simply increasing the number
of jobs won’t be sufficient to allow
South Africa to boost savings. ‘More
job-intensive growth needs to be
accompanied by improving the quality
of education so that better educated
youth are entering the workforce,’ it
reports. ‘This needs to be complemented
by efforts to improve the productivity
of existing workers and the unemployed
through better skills development and
training.’ (World Bank, 2015:47).