BC ’ s solid economic performance in 2017 gave it a good starting point for 2018 , with exports and consumer demand both remaining buoyant in the first quarter . TD Economics has forecasted a real GDP growth rate of 2.4 % for BC in 2018 , keeping it on pace with Alberta and Quebec at the head of the provincial pack . 5 The consumer-driven momentum of 2017 is likely to continue in 2018 , albeit with some slowdown in the construction sector . Taxes on foreign buyers and speculators , increased tax rates on homes valued at $ 3 million and over , and the prospect of higher interest rates are expected to have a dampening effect on the BC housing market , although to what extent is unclear . The emergence of trade protectionism in our biggest export market , the United States , casts some doubt on BC ’ s export industry for 2018 . The forest industry , in particular , faces pressure from the ongoing softwood lumber trade dispute with the US , and the outcome of the North American Free Trade Agreement negotiations remains unclear . BC producers may be compelled to diversify their export markets in the years to come . But simply focusing on BC ’ s “ big picture ” does overlook some regional concerns . For example , Northern BC has yet to realize its potential , despite being rich in energy , minerals , and lumber , and Northwest BC has seen an economic slowdown and a rise in consumer insolvency rates , largely as a result of the indefinite hold placed on a number of proposed major LNG projects . Meanwhile , the Cariboo , Kootenay , and North Coast development regions have experienced population losses , as workers and their families have left to seek economic opportunities elsewhere .
Working in regional BC
Job creation Employment in BC grew by 87,300 in 2017 , reaching 2.47 million jobs . This was a 3.7 % gain , the highest annual increase experienced by the province in at least a decade . As employment is concentrated in Southwest BC ( home to the largest urban centre in the province ), it ’ s not surprising that this region was the largest contributor to employment growth last year , with the creation of 49,200 new jobs , primarily in the service sector . Vancouver Island / Coast saw the second-largest increase , with 20,100 new jobs , while employment in Thompson- Okanagan grew by 11,400 . The Kootenays , Cariboo , and Northwest BC also experienced employment gains , while Northeast BC saw its total employment decline by 600 jobs . BC ’ s goods sector grew by 4.6 % in 2017 , its strongest annual growth rate in over a decade . The construction industry , particularly in Southwest BC , was responsible for much of this growth , accounting for 17,300 of BC ’ s 21,600 new jobs . At the same time , BC ’ s manufacturing industry saw a gain of 4,100 jobs , concentrated primarily in Southwest BC and Vancouver Island / Coast , and agricultural employment increased by 1,800 jobs . Combined , our resource ( forestry , fishery , mining , and oil and gas ) and utilities industries accounted for a loss of 1,600 jobs . Employment in BC ’ s service sector increased by 65,700 jobs in 2017 , reaching 2.0 million . This signified a growth rate of 3.4 %, the same as in 2016 . There were small gains in the Kootenay and Cariboo development regions , but most of these new service-sector jobs were created in BC ’ s more diversified economies : Southwest BC , Vancouver Island / Coast , and Thompson-Okanagan . By contrast , Northern BC saw a decline in service-sector employment .
5
TD Economics , Provincial Economic Forecast , Resilience in the Face of Uncertainty , March 15 , 2018 . 18 . RTurnbullBarChartAd 2018-05-29 10:01 AM Page 1
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Average Monthly Performance 1
3.5 % 3.1 %
UP MONTHS ( 60 % OF TIME )
DOWN MONTHS ( 40 % OF TIME )
-1.7% -3.6%
Odlum Brown Model Portfolio *
Compound Annual Returns 14.9 %
8.5 %
Since December 15 , 1994 S & P / TSX Total Return Index
1 Performance measured mid-month from December 1994 - May 2018 . * The Odlum Brown Model Portfolio is a hypothetical all-equity portfolio that was established by the Odlum Brown Equity Research Department on December 15 , 1994 with a hypothetical investment of $ 250,000 . It showcases how we believe individual security recommendations may be used
within the context of a client portfolio . The Model also provides a basis with which to measure the quality of our advice and the effectiveness of our disciplined investment strategy . Trades are made using the closing price on the day a change is announced . Performance figures do not include any allowance for fees . Past performance is not indicative of future performance .
CPABC in Focus • July / August 2018 17