Cover Story
Working , Investing , and Living in BC in 2015
By Marlyn Chisholm
BC ’ s economy held its own in 2015
Overall , BC was a better place in which to work , invest , and live in 2015 . Of the six indicators used in CPABC ’ s Regional Check-Up reports , BC saw improvements in four : job creation , capital investment , business bankruptcies , and educational attainment . As for the remaining two indicators — the consumer insolvency rate and the provincial unemployment rate — the former remained the same as in 2014 , and the latter increased , making it the only negative indicator result in 2015 . Last year ’ s global oil shock stalled economic growth and job creation in Canada , especially in our most energy-producing provinces . BC , however , fared comparatively well , with a GDP growth rate of 2.4 % in 2015 — second only to Ontario ’ s growth rate of 2.6 %. 1 Continued export growth , low interest rates , a booming real estate market , and continued immigration all helped to boost the BC economy in 2015 , stimulating domestic demand and creating 27,800 new jobs across the province . In addition , significant inter-provincial and international in-migration fuelled a 9 % increase in BC ’ s retail sales 2 and helped stimulate housing activity ( already buoyed by low interest rates ). Dampened by both declining oil prices and waning demand for energy and minerals in China , BC ’ s total export value increased by only a modest 0.6 % between 2014 and 2015 . 3 But while the value of total shipments to China and other Asia Pacific markets declined in 2015 , this drop was offset by an increase in the value of exports to the US , Eastern Europe , Central America , and the Middle East . Overall , the sustained level of export value can be attributed to the depreciating Canadian dollar and the strengthening of the US economy in the latter half of 2015 . Looking ahead , BC is expected to outperform the rest of Canada for the remainder of 2016 , as our lesser reliance on the oil and gas industry , combined with our diversified economy , gives the province a favourable outlook . TD Economics predicts that BC ’ s real GDP will grow by 3.0 % in 2016 — the highest growth expected of any province in Canada 4 — based on expectations of strong performances by the industries that benefit from a weakened Canadian dollar — in particular : manufacturing , tourism , and trade . Additionally , continued consumer demand , driven by ongoing in-migration and housing market activity , should also continue to fuel retail sales . For the Mainland / Southwest Development Region ( Southwest BC ), in particular , growth will continue to be propelled by economic diversification ( especially in the high-tech industry ), strong domestic and international demand in the housing market , and our province ’ s growing role as a key North American hub for transportation , trade , industry , communication , and Asian culture . Energy is also a consideration when looking at BC ’ s future prospects . It ’ s possible that one or more of the major capital investment proposals in northern BC ’ s liquefied natural gas ( LNG ) industry will be approved , and if any of these LNG projects get the go-ahead , we could see a huge influx of investment provincewide . With that said , the uncertainties of the energy market and the tightening of environmental regulations may keep pushing this prospect further into the future .
1
TD Economics , Provincial Economic Forecast Update , April 5 , 2016 .
2
Statistics Canada , Retail Trade January 2016 , released March 2016 .
3
BC Stats , Annual BC Origin Exports , May 2016 . These estimates are slightly different from those in the CPABC Regional Check-Up reports , which are based on data from January 2016 .
4
TD Economics , Provincial Economic Forecast Update , April 5 , 2016 . cineuno / iStock / Thinkstock
16 CPABC in Focus • July / August 2016