BUSINESS
Back
on track
After stalling in 2017,
international travel to
the U.S. is projected
to produce 90 million
annual visitors by
2022
BY JULIE P. HEIZER,
U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE,
NATIONAL TRAVEL AND TOURISM OFFICE
THE U.S. DEPARTMENT of Commerce
projects international travel to the
United States will continue experienc-
ing growth through 2022, based on the
National Travel and Tourism Office’s
2017 Fall Travel Forecast.
Visitor volume in 2017 was expected
to end the year unchanged compared
to the 2016 level of 75.9 million visitors
who stayed one or more nights in the U.S.
Growth is expected to resume in 2018 and
produce a 3.9 percent increase and a new
volume record of 78.9 million visitors.
According to the forecast for 2017–22,
the United States would see a 2.9
percent compounded average annual
increase in visitor volume. By 2022 this
growth would produce 90.0 million
total visitors, a 19 percent increase,
and more than 14 million additional
visitors compared to 2016. The com-
pounded growth rate is lower than the
3.3 percent projected in the 2016 Fall
Travel Forecast due to the unexpected
flat performance last year. Using 2017
as the base year produces a 3.5 percent
compounded growth rate through 2022,
and thus the long-term growth poten-
tial for international visitation remains
unchanged.
All but one of the top 21 visitor ori-
gin countries are forecast to grow from
2016 through 2022. Top origin countries
with the largest projected total growth
percentages are China (57%), South
Korea (46%), Ireland (28%), Canada (22%)
and Italy (22%). Mexico and India do
not make this top-growth list because
of steep declines expected in 2017.
Venezuela is the only country expected
to have a decline in visitors (-33%) by
the end of the forecast period.
Four countries are expected to
account for 54 percent of the projected
volume growth from 2017 through 2022:
Canada (with 30 percent of the expected
total growth of 14.1 million additional
visitors), China (12%), South Korea (6%)
and Mexico (6%).
If the forecast results are realized
through 2022, the current top 10 coun-
tries will experience minor shifts in
rankings; the top 10 origin countries in
2016 will remain so in 2022.
The U.S. Travel Forecast was prepared
by research staff in the Department of
Commerce/National Travel and Tourism
Office using economic, demographic
and social factors; historical visita-
tion trends; input from the DOC Global
Markets staff members living abroad;
and numerous other sources. The Travel
Forecast is updated in the spring and
fall each year.
2017–22 forecast highlights,
by region
North America The forecast for this
region, comprised of Canada and
Mexico, is downgraded slightly from
the fall 2016 forecast because of
the 2017 decline in visitation from
Mexico. North America is still pro-
jected to have the largest regional
growth over the forecast period,
though. The region should generate
More visitors
These four countries are projected to account for more than
half of the total growth in U.S.-inbound visitation through 2022:
Canada 30%
China 12%
South Korea 6%
Mexico 6%
12
February 2018