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DR KEILL SPOKE IN front of around 70 journalists from 17 countries at the press day and focused on good news in his 2017 forecast . He said that for the first time in years , he did not expect any ‘ further market stresses below the line ’ and instead predicted an overall stabilisation . This was reflected in the group ’ s forecast total sales of around 620 million euros , just below the previous year ’ s levels .

Window and door markets in Germany , Europe and the world were in an essentially unchanged situation in 2016 compared to 2015 , although there was a moderate upward trend in Europe . This applied to Germany , France , Italy , Spain and Poland although ‘ the losers ’ included Great Britain .

The research network Euroconstruct expected its 19 countries ’ average housing construction to grow by 2.5 % in 2017 . In the current year , growth was primarily driven by new builds , which rose by just over 5.5 %, albeit from a low base . Southern and Eastern Europe were among growth regions .

Positive predictions could not hide the fact that the total

European market had shrunk by a quarter to 70 million window units since 2007 ( then 93 million window units ). There was also pressure from what Dr Keill described as the ‘ Eastern European export offensive ’, which was benefiting from the ongoing trend towards PVCu windows and now included Romania as well as Poland . Individual producers in Romania exported up to 90 % of their entire production .

Ireland , Hungary , Portugal and Spain were in the lead regarding European housebuilding . The midfield included Germany and Great Britain although the Brexit effects in the United Kingdom had not yet been ‘ priced in .’ Italy and Belgium brought up the rear .

On Germany , Dr Keill said : “ Construction here is not just new builds . The renovation sector , which is responsible for about 70 % of the total market , is stagnating , or in some cases , even falling . New apartment figures of 350,000 to 400,000 a year are currently unrealistic .”

Roto ’ s chief financial officer , Michael Stangier , estimated total group sales as at 30th September 2016 to be just over 480 million

euros – which was described as a relative success in the light of ‘ some spectacular market weaknesses .’

The Window and Door Technology division recorded a slight rise in sales revenue , including sales from this year ’ s Deventer and Peder Nielsen acquisitions . Roto ’ s Roof and Solar Technology division reported a slight , single digit drop in overall sales .

The Roto positions remained stable in generally falling markets – also based on the successful introduction of the generation ‘ Q ’ roof window . However , Michael Stangier described the 2016 earnings situation as ‘ clearly unsatisfactory .’ He blamed market-related stresses , higher raw material prices of up to 40 % ( zinc , aluminium ) and negative currency shifts .

RUSSIAN SLUMP

Dr Keill referred to a ‘ continued slump ’ in window and door markets in Russia and sharp losses in China . The Russian slump , where the market had practically halved in just 20 months , was ‘ particularly painful ’ and was based primarily on political crises

( Ukraine and Syria ), economic sanctions and low oil prices . There had also been a 30 % fall in government spending on construction in both 2015 and 2016 .

In China , the entire building trade was essentially stagnating and housebuilding , which accounts for two thirds of overall building construction , looked to be weakening . South America , meanwhile , ranged from moderate market growth ( Chile ) to heavy falls ( Argentina , Brazil ).

By far the best market prospects came from the USA where the modernisation and repair sector were expanding rapidly . Positive forecasts were underpinned by population growth and the ageing housing stock .

Dr Keill said also of importance were general but little discussed sector problems like the continuing consolidation process , which was leading to falling company numbers .

Markets were constantly changing – there was a German trend towards higher-quality window and door fittings while in France the aluminium segment was ‘ surprisingly ’ gaining traction .