provide essential government services to their populations, and will require months of reconstruction before
they are able to perform those tasks. The Kaliningrad
and the buffer zone within Russian territory are captured enemy territory, making the US and its NATO
allies responsible for their governance under international law regarding occupation. Winter is coming,
and there will be a massive humanitarian catastrophe
if basic governmental services are not restored quickly.
There are of course many other readily foreseeable
scenarios, as well as those that seem far-fetched now
(much like the occupation of Iraqi territory in 1991
and 2003 would have seemed impossible in 1988).
Planning Assumptions
In practically any scenario, the following planning
assumptions probably will be applicable:
• Critical government infrastructure will be
damaged or destroyed by combat operations,
looting, etc.
• Important public records may have been destroyed, damaged, or removed.
• Local national public employees will have either fled or will refuse to cooperate with American forces.
• In particular, police and other law-enforcement
personnel will not be available to provide security and law enforcement services.
• U.S. forces personnel will not be fluent in the
local language, necessitating numerous technically trained translators.
92