CANNAINVESTOR Magazine February / March 2017 - Page 107

Anyone who is thinking of applying but not already aware of the coming fees will be immediately eliminated, no matter how well-crafted their business plan or how impressive their list of executive accomplices. These business models have total average expenses of $7-8million over the first few years, so an additional million at the eleventh hour throws an enormous wrench into the gears of faith. It will force many small-but-viable players out, and give previously bullish investors cold feet.

Regardless, on February 23rd medical marijuana, the most exciting business in America, the only one with social justice missions and a 20% growth rate through 2020, is finally coming to Texas.

But the price of starting a medical marijuana business in Texas will be prohibitive, to say the least. And let's face it: as of today, the state has an unworkable system. The prescription model is problematic, there's only one approved medical condition in our state--intractable epilepsy and the potential market size (by TPDS's own estimate) is a mere 1,276 patients.

That estimate considers .85% of intractable epilepsy patients in Texas who don't respond to medication, numbers taken from "patients in eight selected states" according to the Tyler Morning Telegraph, the source of TDPS research.

The department also did the math on how much low-THC, high CBD flower would need to be grown: about one-quarter pound of low-THC per patient, approximately 316 pounds total a year for the entire market. That's hardly enough to fire up the master growers. A Colorado lab director helped with their assessment.

Marijuana in Texas is a bet at terrible odds, but people will continue to make it.

Michael Mayes is a marketer, consultant, and professor in Fort Worth, Texas.

See Michael's LinkedIn profile here.

If you know of companies in legal states building executive teams, or in need of direct sales or marketing talent, please contact me.

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