Business First May-June 2017 Business First May 2017 - Page 31

Thus they know that to achieve eventual success they may have to look in a number of places, some of which may turn out to be fruitless. And for that they espouse Edison’s dictum that finding many things that don’t work is not failure but success on the route to finding those that do. This exploring approach is reflected in the principles of ‘effectuation’ identified by Saras Sarasvathy. She found that many successful entrepreneurs distrust market research and, when deciding how much they would invest in a new venture, base their decisions on how much they could afford to lose rather than how much they might gain. They expect that reality will turn out to be different from prior expectations and so are prepared to adjust their approaches accordingly as they progress. And Taleb also picks up this investment approach when he speaks of those whose investments of choice are not the ones with the best balance of risk and potential return but those with the lowest risk of catastrophe. Such exploring approaches have a long history and are often referred to as ‘trial and error’ ­ although error is the wrong word as it is really trial, observation, feedback and improvement. Such considerations are encompassed in the ideas of ‘lean start­up’ in which developers of new technical devices and systems are encouraged, not to wait for a fully developed version before exposing a new product to the public, but instead to try limited market releases of early versions in order to get real market feedback which can often be surprising in the problems or successes and the likes or dislikes it reveals. Taleb’s book Antifragile has already been mentioned but it is worth e rFRFFRFV"fVFVBFRv&B( Fg&v^( 2FP6FRb( g&v^( *v62B( &'W7N( P62&V6W6RvW&V26WFrv60g&vR&RFvVB'6&VW72FƖr6WFrv62&'W7B2Ɩ&RF&PV6vVBBRvFVBv&Bf 6WFrv67FVBvB&WGFW"&'W7FW722gFV6WfVB'7G&VwFVrFR7V&V7BB7VFr@g&WG6FRVffV7G2 *v62vBv( B&P6vVB'FV'WBFV"vFVB&Vf"F6RFw2FB&R7G&VwFVVB &fVB2&W7VBbV6W'F6&VW72 &VvFƖr( 2Bf"FBFWfRF&PW6VBFFRfVV6W2VW7F&VV6r&FGRf"&v&W2FW7Fp6FB&&V26&RFVFfVB@&fVVG2FR2WR`FfvƗG&7F6RF6R&RW7BfWrbFRFV2v6֖vB&RVgVvVf6VBvFV6W'FG( 262B76&RFV&g&FBv`F涖sFW&R2wVF6RFVW2Ff6PV6W'FG( 2'WBW76VFǒB&WV&W26vR֖L*6WBvRVVBFfRg&ЧFRG&FF'W6W72v6Fv6V6W&vW2VgL*'&VB&6bpf"6W'FG"266RFB276&R@rFB&62( 2B7FVB&7F6P&vL*'&VB66WF6RFBFw2&PV6W'F'WBFBB2FBV6W'FGF@'GVFW26&RfVB@&fVVG2FRRvb7V&6rF2֖vB&RFRW&W76( &VG*f&\*( vR&RW6V@FFR6WVV6R( &VG**f&^( v6ƖW2vVf&r6WFrƖR&fPvVFR6FW"2gW'FW"6G&fW FR'VWB6RFRG&vvW"2VVB'WB&VƖfRWfVG2&RgFVV6&PƖRwVFVB֗76W2v66&R7FVW&V@gFW"FWfR&VV7F'FVBB&RV6&WGFW"BGFrF&vWG2v6RgWGW&PfVVG2&RV6W'F6( &VG*f&\*( 2gFVFR&WGFW"v( 0bRfRFR&vBWFBFƶBF7W'BBf'7BB@VFb6fWGG&rf v&6R@6VG&6W'6RV"R &WVW7B'&6W&R#s30G&t6f'7FB&p7B'V6R䒒W&R3R6'&6VVF6&R&&Vf7B%C$(6&GV&W#(333wwr'W6W76f'7FƖR6V#