Business First May-June 2017 Business First May 2017 - Page 30

THOUGHT LEADERSHIP Contemplating Brexit we need to face uncertainty by Ulster University Visiting Professor Simon Bridge t is natural to try to anticipate the future in order to prepare for it. A simple example might be our anticipation of summer for which we might prepare by buying a new wardrobe and booking a holiday ­ but what should we do to prepare for Brexit? The difference between our anticipation of summer and that of Brexit is that we can be reasonably sure that the warmer weather will come but the eventual working out of Brexit seems much more uncertain. Normally when faced with uncertainty we look for predictions and often for that we resort to a number of ‘logical’ means such as extrapolation from what has happened in the past. Past experience has taught us that the sun will rise each morning and that spring will be followed by summer – so we can reliably predict those sequences of events. An extension of this is when we find an apparently scientific explanation for events ­ such as when Newton formulated his law of gravity which, when combined with a heliocentric view of the solar system, enabled him to predict the movement o