Lessons from a Green Revolution
budgets to agricultural investments.18 The accomplishments
of the Green Revolution would not have been possible without
substantial political and financial support from the countries
involved. The emerging Alliance for a Green Revolution in Africa (AGRA), bringing the Gates and Rockefeller Foundations
together in partnership with national leaders and African scientists, holds real promise for stimulating the kind of research and
policy r eform that will lead to sustainable, pro-poor economic
growth. Organizations like the National Smallholder Farmers
Association of Malawi (NASFAM),19 which provides production and marketing support for more than 100,000 farmers,
demonstrate what can be achieved through a combination of
local partnerships and financial and technical support.
At the beginning of Asia’s Green Revolution, many experts
were skeptical that India would ever emerge from chronic food
insecurity. Despite what they saw as nearly insurmountable obstacles, India has been able to reduce poverty from 55 percent
in 1970 to 35 percent in 2000. And it did so largely because of
growth in agriculture and the rural economy. For African countries to achieve similar results, national governments and the
international community will need to act in concert, putting in
place the policies, institutions, and resources that will encourage
and support smallholder agriculture and rural development.
In the early and mid-1960s, many experts were predicting
that millions of people around the world would die of starvation. Like many African countries today, India and China,
Indonesia and Thailand were mired in poverty. Countries in
South and East Asia relied heavily on food imports. Overall
economic growth barely kept pace with population growth, and
agricultural productivity was stagnant.
Then, beginning in the 1960s and continuing through the
1970s, new technologies developed by international agricultural
research centers, in partnership with the Rockefeller Foundation and supported by the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) and other donors, were introduced in Asia.
These technologies involved using improved varieties of wheat,
rice, and hybrid maize in combination with more fertilizer.
Countries in the region began to experience what has come to
be known as the “Green Revolution.”
The Green Revolution fueled a dramatic increase in food
production in India. Between 1970 and 1999, India doubled its
cereal production, fueled by a threefold increase in wheat production. India is now a net rice exporter, and the wheat that it
imports is an insignificant share of all the food available. Moreover, technological innovations have come largely from Indian
research farms, the result of decades of investment in science
and technology that began in the 1960s.
So far, there has been no Green Revolution for sub-Saharan
China, another Green Revolution success story, has had the
Africa. In fact, one of the major barriers to its development most rapid reduction in poverty in modern history. In little more
has been the poor performance of the agricultural sector— than two decades, the country’s poverty rate fell more than sixagricultural production has not kept up with population growth. fold: from 66 percent of the population in 1981 to 10 percent by
The cause is neglect by both national governments and donors. 2004. Over this period, 500 million Chinese people were lifted
Since 1973, the region has been a net food importer.
out of extreme poverty.20 Economists often point to China as a
The graphs at right show the relationship between agri- textbook case of export-led growth in the manufacturing sector.
cultural productivity (measured in terms of crop yields) and But in reality, rural economic growth and agricultural growth
poverty levels for South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa between in particular had far more to do with China’s dramatic reduc1984 and 2002.15 The story behind this graph is one of glaring tion in poverty between 1981 and 2004.21
discrepancies between South Asia’s and sub-Saharan Africa’s
In the past 15 years, Vietnam has had a tremendous growth
key agricultural indicators. Sub-Saharan
Africa’s rate of irrigation is one-tenth that
Agricultural Productivity and Poverty Levels
of South Asia, and its rate of fertilizer use
one-eighth that of South Asia. Africa’s ceSub-Saharan Africa
South Asia
Cereal yields,
Cereal yields,
real yields are less than half those of South
Poverty incidence, %
Poverty incidence, %
tons per hectare
tons per hectare
Asia.16
60
60
In spite of some formidable obstacles,
3.5
3.5
50
50
however, it is possible to achieve sustained
agricultural growth in Africa. Twelve sub40
40
2.5
2.5
Saharan African countries are already
30
30
succeeding in their efforts: they have had
20
20
agricultural growth rates higher than 3
1.5
1.5
percent (some higher than 5 percent) sus10
10
tained over the past 15 years.17
0.5
0.5
0
0
Another encouraging sign is that a
1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002
1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002
number of African leaders have pledged
Source: World Bank, 2008.
to commit 10 percent of their national
Ploughing a Path for Sustainable Development
4 Briefing Paper, June 2008