2018 SPECIAL
Trends and forecasts for satellite video services in APAC
BY DIMITRI BUCHS
After strong growth in recent years driven by the launch of new pay-TV platforms , the development of freeto-air ( FTA ) offerings and the takeoff of HDTV , consolidated capacity utilisation across Asia-Pacific has slowed down in the past couple of years , with growth mainly coming from South Asia , led by India .
Overall , regional growth slowed as several platforms decreased their number of channels , with some of them also ending their services due to mounting terrestrial FTA and over-the-top ( OTT ) competition . In parallel , only a limited number of new platforms were rolled out in the past couple of years , one of the latest being Solar DTH in the Philippines in 2017 . 4K / Ultra HD ( UHD ) has also remained relatively limited so far , contributing to the lack of dynamism of the market . As of February 2018 , 17 4K / UHD channels were broadcast by satellite in Asia-Pacific .
South Asia Growth should mainly be supported by competition in pay-TV , as well as by the possible launch of several new platforms , including in Pakistan , where direct-to-home ( DTH ) licences have recently been auctioned . In the short term , growth should largely depend on the availability of additional capacity to distribute new TV channels . In the longer term , growth is expected to result from large HD roll-outs and the first 4K / UHD roll-outs . High throughput satellite ( HTS ) could also be used for TV broadcasting . In terms of primary market risks , consolidation within the DTH market would have a significant impact on capacity usage . A change in the regulatory framework could also impact the market .
South-east Asia Growth should mainly be supported by satellite pay-TV platforms . New platforms could be launched in a few countries , as most countries in South-east Asia are still at an early stage of pay-TV development , and as several market players are still in a fragile position , notably in Indonesia . Demand should also be driven by the development of HDTV , as well as the digitisation of ground networks . Further , some platforms in countries ( such as Indonesia ) with a high number of active services may consolidate their activities or endservices , especially once growth in subscribers and revenue slows down .
2 An Supplement
North-east Asia Despite the negative impact of the end of SD / HD simulcasts for DTH platforms in the short-term and the development of OTT , the regional market is expected to benefit from different factors . The main driver after 2020 should be 4K / UHD . Following the roll-out of the first channels in 2014 , the region is expected to be one of the world pioneers for the development of both 4K / UHD and 8K ( from 2020 ). A total of 110 4K / UHD channels are expected to be broadcast in Northeast Asia in 2025 . HD , despite the already advanced development stage of the format , should continue to drive the market , with roughly 100 channels added by 2025 .
China Area The region , particularly mainland China , offers numerous opportunities for satellite pay-TV . Our initial assumption is that the “ satellite TV platforms ” type of services is unlikely to be launched in the short to middle term . Still , licensees for such services would likely be Chinese companies that are potentially state-owned . Furthermore , mainland Chinese satellite operators should be preferred for the broadcast of such platforms . Based on the assumption that platforms will be in service and that there will be substantial progress in the digitisation of terrestrial networks , the number of channels is expected to develop progressively in the next decade .
Oceania & Pacific Growth is expected to come from the introduction of more HD channels and more digital channels to fill terrestrial networks . Growth is nevertheless expected to be limited by the relatively small size of the market , its maturity and the growing focus of broadcasters on non-linear services , particularly in Australia and New Zealand . More than 500 HD channels could be broadcast in the region by 2025 . Around 50 % of total channels distributed in the region should be HD channels in 2025 .
Dimitri Buchs is senior consultant , Euroconsult .
Spectrum sharing ? Even before WRC-19 comes around next year , Intelsat and Intel have submitted a joint proposal to expand the use of 3700-4200MHz spectrum from satellite services to terrestrial mobile services .
ground-segment hubs at multi-gateway sides to counter the complexities and effects of rain fade . So , while HTS is provisioned in either Ku- or Ka-band , there is still a compelling case to be made for traditional C-band fixed-satellite service ( FSS ) widebeam broadcast distribution .
At WRC-15 , one of the key verdicts passed was to maintain C-band spectrum primarily for FSS . However , this may prove to be a temporary reprieve as the International Telecommunication Union ( ITU ) prepares to re-convene for WRC-19 next October in Sharm El Sheikh , Egypt . Perhaps , unsurprisingly , mobile operators have already begun to clamour for parts of the C-band spectrum band to be allocated for the International Mobile Telecommunications Advanced ( IMT- Advanced ) service .
And in a further twist to this development , satellite services provider Intelsat , in conjunction with Intel , submitted a joint proposal last October under a current Federal Communications Commission ( FCC ) Notice of Inquiry regarding expanding the use of 3700- 4200Mhz spectrum from satellite services to terrestrial mobile services .
If the proposal is adopted , wireless operators would be able to access new “ mid-band ” spectrum that would help accelerate the adoption of 5G services .
According to Intelsat and Intel , satellite users would continue to operate in the band with “ certainty of continued high quality ” for C-band video distribution and data networks .
To say the least , this is a controversial position that is unlikely to sit well with many providers of C-band satellite services , particularly in Asia-Pacific .
While HTS services provisioned in Ku- or Ka-band are likely to grow across the region , C-band frequencies , arguably , remain vital to the operation of satellite services in Asia-Pacific , where ‘ rain fade ’ is most prominent .
Governments and regulators need to consider carefully the potential impact of allocating C-band spectrum , if any at all , to the IMT industry . What would be the criteria for any spectrum sharing scheme , and how would this impact both operators and users ?
In many under-developed countries in Asia-Pacific , where high-speed mobile networks simply do not currently exist , will C-band sharing diminish the ability to connect under-reached populations ? For the sake of the future of broadcast distribution in Asia-Pacific , it is a decision that no government or regulator in the region can afford to take lightly .
Rising above the challenges caused by disruption
A survey conducted by the World Teleport Association ( WTA ) on top executives of satellite service providers at the end of 2017 produced some thought-provoking results . Nearly half of respondents ( 44 %) of media-focused companies expect declines in DTH , terrestrial and cable TV origination , as well as distribution services .
To counter the downturn , they are now directing their investment in over-the-top ( OTT ) distribution , private cloud services for content owners , the Internet of Things ( IoT ) and the integration of third-party cloud services into their offerings .
In the past year , a wave of disruptive technologies and market changes has begun to challenge operators , said Robert Bell , executive director of WTA . “ This includes new models of connectivity — HTS , middle and low earth orbit spacecraft , [ and ] is driven by the rising domination of software over hardware , customer demands for seamless global service , and the accelerating shift in how media consumers want their programming delivered .”
Having said that , and despite of the expected decline in their core business , 18 % of respondents to the WTA survey indicated a continued willingness to invest in terrestrial , cable and DTH distribution .
There is still “ significant capacity growth potential ” in Asia over the long term , argued Alan Crisp , senior analyst at Northern Sky Research ( NSR ), an international market research and consulting firm . “ Despite some gloom in some more developed video markets , the very real value of satellite in terms of point-to-multipoint content carriage is not going away ,” he said .
In Myanmar , for example , multiple new platforms have been launched over the past couple of years , with several operators benefiting from multitransponder contracts , NSR reported . And in Indonesia , the most populous Muslim country in the world , the sheer size of the country means there is still a sizeable number of households getting a TV set for the first time .
Within South-east Asia , increasing levels of disposable income means there is still significant room for an increase in first-time subscribers paying for DTH , cable TV and IPTV subscriptions .
Or , as Crisps sums up perfectly : “ There are opportunities , if you know where to look .”
2018 SPECIAL
is most prominent.
Governments and regulators need to
consider carefully the potential impact of
allocating C-band spectrum, if any at all,
to the IMT industry. What would be the
criteria for any spectrum sharing scheme,
and how would this impact both operators
and users?
In many under-developed countries
in Asia-Pacific, where high-speed mobile
networks simply do not currently exist,
will C-band sharing diminish the ability
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