ARRC Journal 2019 | Page 53

READY FOR TODAY – EVOLVING FOR TOMORROW THE KREMLIN’S TIMELESS WEAPON: AMBIGUITY Captain Robert Atchison, British Army Ambiguity is defined as “the quality of being open to more than one interpretation; inexactness.” 1 Numerous modern warfare journals refer to the ‘hybrid’ nature of Russia’s contemporary, full spectrum, multi-level strategies and tactics. Stating they are hybrid suggests they are new; they are not. What is new is the way the Kremlin has harnessed modern technology to challenge the West in an area it has dominated since 1991 – the information environment. The Kremlin’s strategic theme is more accurately described as ‘ambiguous warfare’. When the Kremlin looks to the West it sees a centre of gravity in our ability to form military alliances to protect our vital, collective interests. The purpose of ambiguous warfare is to damage or degrade this capability. It encourages the West to view its adversaries as undefined, constantly morphing, unique entities. To effectively counter attacks, responses must be tailored and targeted to be effective. The Kremlin’s rule of Russia is authoritarian, enabling dynamic action at a geo-strategic level. 2 3 The West, however, is ruled by consensus. Delays are common due to the democratic, ‘council’ nature of decision- making. These delays are exploited to divide public opinion, leading to a greater demand on resources from contributing countries. These extra demands lead to the degradation of public, and therefore political, consensus that manifests itself in slower political decision-making. The West has seen in Syria over the last three years how Russian media, controlled by the Kremlin, has told untruths about its campaign, telling the wider world one story and the Russian people another. For example, the Kremlin repeatedly highlights how accurate its weapons are via state-controlled media (RT and Sputnik). However, in reality 80 per cent of all Russian munitions dropped or fired are ‘dumb’ and have no guidance systems. 4 Taking these two themes further, the establishment of context is vital to understand how the Kremlin divides the information domain. Control of context enables the planning of information operations, critically including the assumption that information given to one target audience will proliferate to another, rarely controlled and not always by design. There is an acceptance that the informational effect may evolve both positively and/or negatively; it is this uncertainty that is relished within the Kremlin, where the West seeks to avoid it at all costs. 5 The Kremlin has successfully established echo chambers at every level, from the geo-strategic to tactical, simultaneously messaging into all of them. 6 Importantly, their modern cyber soldiers are given 1 “Ambiguity,” Dictionary, Google, https://www.google.co.uk/search?q=define+ambiguity&oq=define+ambiguity&aqs=chrome..69i57.7279j0j8&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF- 8&safe=active&ssui=on. 2 Author Unknown, “Putin’s New Authoritarian Russia,” The Global State, February 6, 2015, http://theglobalstate.com/currentevents/putins-new-authoritarian-russia. 3 Luke Chambers, “Authoritarianism and Foreign Policy: The twin pillars of a resurgent Russia,” Eurasia Review, June 14, 2010, http://www.eurasiareview.com/14062010-authoritarianism-and- foreign-policy-the-twin-pillars-of-resurgent-russia/. 4 Kareem Shaheen, “Russia suspected of using ‘dumb’ bombs to shift blame for Syria war crimes,” The Guardian, March 6, 2018, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/mar/06/russia- suspected-of-using-dumb-bombs-to-shift-blame-for-syria-war-crimes. 5 Dennis Gibson and Stephen Moore, “Retaking the High Ground,” Booz, Allen, Hamilton, 2017, https://www.defenseone.com/media/sponsored-info-ops-retaking-high-ground.pdf. 6 Shannon Fisher, “Are you in a Social Media Echo Chamber? How to take an Objective Look,” Forbes, February 28, 2018, https://www.forbes.com/sites/quora/2018/02/28/are-you-in-a-social- media-echo-chamber-how-to-take-an-objective-look/#193dccd261f9. ALLIED RAPID REACTION CORPS 53