Arlington Comprehensive Plan Update Adopted 3-17-2015 | Page 118

Population Considerations

built, and policy environments. Each
environment was analyzed both
While growth has slowed in the 21st
individually and as a group, providing
century, Arlington’s population looks
both qualitative and quantitative
to marginally exceed 423,000 people at
measures of capacity appropriate
build-out, estimated to be reached at
to the city. This analysis provides a
some point after 2023. Currently, only
technical foundation to guide this
6,128 acres, just under ten percent, of
Plan’s policies for suitable, viable,
total city land area is categorized as
and efficient future growth and
vacant and available to develop. With
development.
a population density of just under six
people per acre, the remaining vacant
Methodology
developable land area can only sustain
a population increase of around 35,000 Assessing the development suitability
more residents, or a population of
of a given area entailed the careful
401,000. If growth continues at its
examination of a broad range of
current rate, this Comprehensive Plan
contributing factors to accurately
must consider the addition of 22,000
gauge the development potential
people in excess of the projected
of a given area. Additionally, specific
capacity.
assumptions were made in order to
define the scope and extent of the
A Way Ahead: The Arlington Model
data involved in the analysis. Based
upon the most accurate and recent
Due to the complexity of the factors
data, the model assumes that the land
involved in the carrying capacity
mass, use, infrastructure, or governing
analysis, the City of Arlington’s model
policies will not significantly change or
began as a measured approach
shift. Further, the model incorporates
with the evaluation of three tiers of
all UT Arlington property for its
information that may constrain or
activity generation potential, and the
encourage development: the natural,
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