Iran
The election of Hamas in 2007, two intifadahs and
plain old exhaustion had taken their toll. Israel’s demands and the Palestinians’ were never in fact really
close. No one has officially given up on the idea, but the
wind had gone out of the sails of that process. The rest
of the Arabs, despite occasional grunts, have gone on to
other more difficult matters: their own soceities’ problems, and the fight with that other power, Iran.
Israel itself, as a mini and hyper version of Turkey,
would take its westernized and organized economic
approach to become a global economic success. Tel
Aviv, not Gaza, is Singapore on the Mediterranean, and
there is gas in the seabed on top of it all. Ramallah and
Nablus? Yes, the Israeli youth have to serve in the army
there, but that is a small price to pay to live in a tough
neighbourhood. Meanwhile, the rest of the world is
reachable through Ben Gurion airport.
Israel, however, is not key to the current tectonic
shifts. It simultaneously enjoys and agonises over its
comfortable space, while its enemies fight it out. It longs
for an alliance with the Gulf countries against Iran, but
its immediate and direct concern is preventing the very
Palestinian state that would open the doors to those
countries.
Preventing rocket fire from Gaza and Lebanon, and
keeping Hezbollah and ISIS at a safe distance are its
main security concerns. This does not equal a grand
strategy and reflects Israel’s traditional opportunism. Israel is not defining this game, only reacting to
whatever suits its purposes.
The Palestinian cause remains, but it is now one of
many festering wounds in the Arab world, diluted by
time and change. However, threats to Israel, in the future, may become more creative and deadlier over time.
Despite today’s ‘time-out’ from being enemy number
one, Israel remains the one country that most can rally
against.
Ironically, Iran, the region’s revolutionary power, is
today more interested in maintaining regional status
quo and its geopolitical position. Iran’s focus is naturally on the nuclear deal and the international gains that
comes with it. However, Iran entered the talks with a
presumption of regional hegemony - four Arab capitals
under its sway. Consolidation or safeguarding a presence in these locales will require considerable energy
and resources.
The Islamic Revolution of 1979 had invigorated this
nation. It brought to life a triple-headed entity, pan-Islamic, Shia and Persian. At various times, each would
take precedence, but, in good Iranian tradition, each
was used as with great flexibility and sophistication whatever it takes to get the job done.
The Islamic Republic was tested. Saddam Hussein,
threatened it with seven years of devastating war. No
one won, but by enduring, the Iranian republic demonstrated its resilience, and survived to adapt to new
times.
Iran waited and watched as Saddam blundered into
Kuwait and sank under Western pressures and invasion. An important Arab country was devastated; Iran
grew stronger with the fading of Iraq.
Today, Iran stands as a coherent but possibly
overstretched regional actor. Its success in Lebanon, in
Iraq and even in saving Assad may be its undoing - for
these are costly ventures. The re-entry into the international arena through the nuclear deal can save the
country. but it can’t have its cake and eat it too. There
will have to be sacrifices, shifts of intent and strategies
if the global game is to prevail over the regional. If Iran
does not rejig its regional efforts, the price in blood and
treasure may prove unaffordable over time.
Israel
The Arabs
Israel, the great nemesis of the Arabs, the cause of
1967 and 1948, thrives. «Never forget» was the Jewish cry for the Holocaust but it also became that of the
Arabs. But, today, many have have slowly come to terms
with Israel’s borders and existence. What really needs
solution today is the occupation of the Palestinians, of
Jerusalem, and (oh yes) the refugees.
That «two-state» solution had become the mantra for
peace. The arguments about it went on for over thirty
years, but that is long enough for such a discussion; no
deal has b