Arctic Yearbook 2015 - Page 418

418 Arctic Yearbook 2015 peoples sometimes struggled to get their messages heard on par with those of scientists (Shadian 2014: 187). Consequently, Arctic indigenous peoples organisations have not been able to convey effectively their message among the multitude of voices and communities represented at UN annual climate conference. During the past years, the most prominent messages voiced by indigenous peoples in the UN climate talks have shifted to other themes more relevant to other regions of the world, such as the need to respect indigenous traditional knowledge and indigenous rights, in particular in relation to projects related to the reduction of deforestation in rainforest countries. Contributions by the research community Over recent years, the Arctic has actually been mainly mentioned in the negotiating halls of the UN climate talks through the presentations delivered by scientists. In particular, research institutions have repeatedly highlighted the most recent findings related to Arctic changes in side events organized during the conferences. Additionally, the scientific dialogue initiated in 2013 to review the merits of long-term temperature goal provided the first forum to discuss more specifically Arctic climate impacts. This formal dialogue aims, among other objectives, at reviewing whether the target of 2ºC adopted by governments during the Copenhagen conference is sufficient to prevent the most dangerous impacts of climate change. Considering the direct human rights implications of climate change in the Arctic, information related to Arctic impacts is indeed particularly relevant to inform any interpretation of the objective to avoid dangerous interference with the climate system (Crowley 2010). Through this process, scientists have highlighted climate impacts observed in the region and warned that an increase of 2ºC of global temperatures implied a much more severe warming of the region. In February 2015, a representative from the Arctic Council’s Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme shared information with governmental delegates on the ongoing and projected impacts of climate change across the circumpolar world. This scientific dialogue offered the first concrete opportunity for Arctic scientific findings to inform the UN climate talks, playing the role of a bellwether so often described for the region. However, the impact of this process is limited by the fact that governments are already struggling to provide commitments that would add up to an emission pathway compatible with the initial 2ºC target. The outcome of the review – which will be formally decided in Paris – is therefore unlikely to have more than a symbolic value. Will the Paris climate agreement have an impact on environmental, policy and economic developments in the Arctic? References to the Arctic in the UN climate talks have thus mainly remained focused on scientific evidences of ongoing impacts than on specific policy proposals. Consequently, the Arctic is not specifically addressed in the ongoing negotiations towards the Paris climate conference, the formal negotiating text serving as a basis for these negotiations containing no reference to the Polar Regions. The Paris climate conference is also unlikely to trigger sufficient new commitments by governments in order to reduce emissions sufficiently to prevent irreversible climate impacts in the Arctic. Initial analysis of the national commitments submitted by governments ahead of the October 1st deadline What Role for the Arctic in COP-21?