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Arctic Yearbook 2015
process and the ability to bridge the gap between one-time assessment efforts within the Arctic
Council.
The overriding objective of AFI is to initiate a research project that will contribute to a sustained
holistic integrated assessment of plausible futures of the Arctic, while cutting across different
disciplines and individual countries’ strategic interests. The initiative will apply advanced integrative
and participatory methods developed by IIASA and its international collaborators for examining
possible futures of the Arctic. This could include IIASA’s research expertise such as work related to
socio-economic scenario development; socio-economic vulnerability assessment of sectors and
populations (such as the indigenous one); and systems analysis to support decision making and Arctic
adaptation efforts.
Whether for the purposes of science, policy or business, efforts focused on the Arctic are multitude
but currently remain fragmented. A holistic, integrated systems approach to the Arctic is missing, as
is a consistent approach to identifying and communicating the plausible Arctic futures.
Another key role for AFI lays in its ability, as part of IIASA as a long-standing international research
institution, to bridge the assessments of the Arctic Council and other relevant institutions across
various chairmanships. To fully realize an integrated and sustained assessment process of Arctic
futures, various activities within individual chairmanship timeframes will need to fit into a broader
sustained assessment framework that AFI will be an essential part of. This type of integrated
methodology and sustained framework will produce more usable, timely, and relevant information,
scenarios and models for stakeholders in the Arctic that can lead to better decisions to be made for a
more sustainable Arctic future.
Reissell, Halinen, Lemke & Vörösmarty