AQUA BOOK 2016 - Page 19

As shown in the accompanying exhibit, the employment growth rate first moved along our upper forecast limit during the first four months of 2015, and then dramatically fell to the bottom of our projection range through year-end. Corpus Christi Unemployment Rate (%) 2015 Forecast Range 4.5% to 5.8% 5 Unemployment is a lagging economic indicator. . . 4 2014 2015 Sources: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, and author's calculations. In addition to employment growth, we made predictions about Corpus Christi’s unemployment rate. For the first half of year 2015, the actual unemployment rates hovered over the lower limit of our forecasting range around 4.5 percent. After oil production began to take a nosedive in mid-year and a corresponding setback in the labor market, unemployment inched up gradually toward our upper limit of 5.8 percent by year-end. Unemployment is a lagging economic indicator, meaning that it typically moves more slowly than other economic indicators during an economic downturn. Annual Review of South Texas Economy CORPUS CHRISTI LABOR MARKET 6 17