As shown in the accompanying exhibit, the employment growth rate first moved
along our upper forecast limit during the first four months of 2015, and then
dramatically fell to the bottom of our projection range through year-end.
Corpus Christi Unemployment Rate (%)
2015 Forecast Range
4.5% to 5.8%
5
Unemployment
is a lagging
economic
indicator. . .
4
2014
2015
Sources: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, and author's calculations.
In addition to employment growth, we made predictions about Corpus Christi’s
unemployment rate. For the first half of year 2015, the actual unemployment rates
hovered over the lower limit of our forecasting range around 4.5 percent. After oil
production began to take a nosedive in mid-year and a corresponding setback in the
labor market, unemployment inched up gradually toward our upper limit of 5.8 percent
by year-end. Unemployment is a lagging economic indicator, meaning that it typically
moves more slowly than other economic indicators during an economic downturn.
Annual Review of South Texas Economy
CORPUS CHRISTI LABOR MARKET
6
17