AQUA BOOK 2016 - Page 18

CORPUS CHRISTI LABOR MARKET I CORPUS CHRISTI LABOR MARKET n early 2015, we presented our short-term economic outlook for Corpus Christi. Since predictions are meaningless without follow-up, we now compare our forecasts with the actual outcomes. We predicted that employment in Corpus Christi would grow at an annual rate between 1.1 percent and 3 percent in 2015. 16 Corpus Christi Employment Growth (Y-o-Y % Change) 2015 Forecast Range 1.1% to 3.0% 4% We foresaw a slowdown in local employment trends. . . 2% 2014 2015 -1% Sources: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, and author's calculations. Instead of a precise percentage point, we provided a cone-shaped forecasting range to highlight uncertainty at that time about the precise timing of the turning point for the local economy. We foresaw a slowdown in local employment trends in response to the plunging oil prices. However, economic theory offers no guidance regarding exactly how long it will take changes in the oil industry to affect other industries in Corpus Christi. This lag in the ripple effects depends on numerous factors, including how soon suppliers for oil companies will lay off their employees, and how soon the unemployed can find a new job. As it turned out, during the first quarter of 2015, Corpus Christi’s employment growth continued on its upward trend established in the previous year. In May, employment growth slowed down dramatically and continued to dwindle through the rest of the year. Annual Review of South Texas Economy