CORPUS CHRISTI LABOR MARKET
I
CORPUS CHRISTI LABOR MARKET
n early 2015, we presented our short-term economic outlook for Corpus Christi.
Since predictions are meaningless without follow-up, we now compare our forecasts
with the actual outcomes. We predicted that employment in Corpus Christi would
grow at an annual rate between 1.1 percent and 3 percent in 2015.
16
Corpus Christi Employment Growth
(Y-o-Y % Change)
2015 Forecast Range
1.1% to 3.0%
4%
We foresaw
a slowdown
in local
employment
trends. . .
2%
2014
2015
-1%
Sources: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, and author's calculations.
Instead of a precise percentage point, we provided a cone-shaped forecasting range
to highlight uncertainty at that time about the precise timing of the turning point for the
local economy. We foresaw a slowdown in local employment trends in response to the
plunging oil prices. However, economic theory offers no guidance regarding exactly
how long it will take changes in the oil industry to affect other industries in Corpus
Christi. This lag in the ripple effects depends on numerous factors, including how soon
suppliers for oil companies will lay off their employees, and how soon the unemployed
can find a new job.
As it turned out, during the first quarter of 2015, Corpus Christi’s employment growth
continued on its upward trend established in the previous year. In May, employment
growth slowed down dramatically and continued to dwindle through the rest of the year.
Annual Review of South Texas Economy