benefit from the possible changes in UK policy and trade relationships towards the EU.
Our estimates of the potential associated with
these opportunities are valued at US$ 2.5 billion. For these 183 products, the largest concentration (in both number and potential value terms) is to be found in the Processed
Food agro-processing value chain component,
followed by Primary, thereafter Forestry related products and lastly Processed Non-Food.
Figure 1: UK agricultural related products import shares from the EU28
Source: Authors calculations from UN COMTRADE international
trade data
by Forestry related products (19%) then Primary (at 14% e.g. unprocessed fruits, nuts,
vegetables etc.) and lastly Processed NonFood (at 10%).
Based on our unique decision support modelling (DSM) framework developed to identify
realistic export opportunities, we identified
183 specific products that could potentially
To elaborate by means of an example – for
one of the products (HS080810: Apples,
fresh1) – currently four of the top 6 major
supplying countries into the UK are located
within the EU (see Figure 3). Although South
Africa already is the second largest supplier
(in value terms) into the UK, further opportunity to gain market share may present itself
as a result of the dynamics introduced by the
Brexit. As indicated, there are many more agricultural products (according to our DSM results – 182), that could potentially benefit
from the changed trade environment.
South African exporters therefore need to
proactively investigate how to tap into the
potential market share gains from the possible changes of the trading and policy relationships with these EU suppliers, before other
supplying markets will step-up and take this
1 The
HS code refers to the 6 digit international product code used by
Customs and Excise to identify such products uniquely in international trade.
Figure 2: Realistic export potential to
UK by major acro-value chain component
Source: Authors, TRADE-DSM V5.0
Figure 3: UK top import sources for
fresh Apples
Source: Authors, TRADE-DSM V5.0