Agri Kultuur September / September 2016 - Page 53

benefit from the possible changes in UK policy and trade relationships towards the EU. Our estimates of the potential associated with these opportunities are valued at US$ 2.5 billion. For these 183 products, the largest concentration (in both number and potential value terms) is to be found in the Processed Food agro-processing value chain component, followed by Primary, thereafter Forestry related products and lastly Processed Non-Food. Figure 1: UK agricultural related products import shares from the EU28 Source: Authors calculations from UN COMTRADE international trade data by Forestry related products (19%) then Primary (at 14% e.g. unprocessed fruits, nuts, vegetables etc.) and lastly Processed NonFood (at 10%). Based on our unique decision support modelling (DSM) framework developed to identify realistic export opportunities, we identified 183 specific products that could potentially To elaborate by means of an example – for one of the products (HS080810: Apples, fresh1) – currently four of the top 6 major supplying countries into the UK are located within the EU (see Figure 3). Although South Africa already is the second largest supplier (in value terms) into the UK, further opportunity to gain market share may present itself as a result of the dynamics introduced by the Brexit. As indicated, there are many more agricultural products (according to our DSM results – 182), that could potentially benefit from the changed trade environment. South African exporters therefore need to proactively investigate how to tap into the potential market share gains from the possible changes of the trading and policy relationships with these EU suppliers, before other supplying markets will step-up and take this 1 The HS code refers to the 6 digit international product code used by Customs and Excise to identify such products uniquely in international trade. Figure 2: Realistic export potential to UK by major acro-value chain component Source: Authors, TRADE-DSM V5.0 Figure 3: UK top import sources for fresh Apples Source: Authors, TRADE-DSM V5.0