from around the globe to show that climate
change is driving them towards the poles.
Many species, including the most commercially
valuable such as cod and haddock, need water
at specific temperatures to breed. An increase
of 1°C in northern European waters, for
example, has forced fish northwards to find
suitable survival conditions. On the plus side,
though, warm water species move in to fill the
gaps.
But, as the study points out, this leaves long-
established fishing agreements lagging behind
reality and makes new ones hard to negotiate,
because the fish keep moving while the
diplomats drag their heels.
“Marine fishes do not have passports and
are not aware of political boundaries; they
will follow their future optimal habitat”
In all, the study suggests, 70 countries will find
that they have different fish stocks in their
territorial waters by 2100. Most countries
have a 200-mile coastal zone for claiming
fishing rights, so this will be a challenge for
governments since the oceans are a critical
source of nutrition for billions of people.
Even in countries with moderate governments
this has already caused serious disputes, but
the study suggests that worse problems could
occur in parts of East Asia where international
relations are already fraught because of
disputed maritime boundaries and illegal
fishing. It says many maritime countries could
find they have new fisheries with stocks once
exclusively managed by neighbouring states.
“Marine fishes do not have passports and are
not aware of political boundaries; they will
follow their future optimal habitat,” said co-
author Gabriel Reygondeau, a postdoctoral
fellow at UBC.
“Unfortunately, the potential change of
distribution of highly-valuable species between
two neighbouring countries will represent
a challenge for fisheries management
that will require new treaties to deal with
transboundary fish stocks.”
Long history
One of the first disputes caused by changes in
fish habits driven by climate change happened
between Canada and the US in the 1980s and
1990s, after warming regional temperatures
caused Pacific salmon to change their
migration patterns.
US fisheries vessels intercepted Canada-
bound salmon, and Canadian boats retaliated
AgriKultuur |AgriCulture
by targeting salmon migrating the other
way to spawn in the US. Only after six years
was a new joint management agreement
implemented.
Malin Pinsky, an assistant professor of ecology,
evolution and natural resources at Rutgers
School of Environmental and Biological
Sciences and lead author of the study, said:
“Fisheries management organisations have
made the rules based on the notion that
particular fish species live in particular waters
and don’t move much, but now we know
they are moving because climate change is
warming ocean temperatures.”
The study also cites international fisheries
disputes including the “mackerel war” between
Iceland and the European Union in 2007. It
suggests that, to avoid conflicts, governments
should implement solutions such as allowing
the trade of fishing permits or quotas across
international boundaries.
William Cheung, associate professor in UBC’s
Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries and
director of science for the Nippon Foundation-
UBC Nereus Program, is the study’s senior
author.
Agreements exist
“Examples of such flexible arrangements
already exist, such as the agreement for US-
Canada Pacific salmon and Norway-Russia
Atlantic herring,” he said.
“Fisheries management organisations can
draw from these experiences to proactively
make existing international fisheries
arrangements adaptable to changing stock
distributions.”
The researchers say the alternative to such
negotiations is grim, including overfishing that
reduces food supply, profit, and employment,
as well as fractured international relations.
In a recent study postdoctoral associate James
Morley reported that many commercially
important fish species could move their
ranges hundreds of miles northward in search
of colder water. This movement is already
under way, and the results have been highly
disruptive for fisheries.
“Consider flounder, which have already
shifted their range 250 miles farther north,”
Professor Pinsky said. “Federal fisheries rules
have allocated many of those fish to fishers
in North Carolina, and now they have to
steam hundreds of extra miles to catch their
flounder.” – Climate News Network
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