divide. Most of the welfare losses, assessed
for six impact areas, would be greatly reduced
under a 2°C scenario.”
It attempts to put a crude measurement on
the consumer cost to Europe’s economic
welfare of various levels of possible climate
change, and the headline figure is that 3°C
warming could impose losses on the European
Union nations of 1.9% of gross domestic
product, or €240bn a year.
But this is an understatement “because key
climate impacts cannot be quantified,” the
researchers say. And once again, losses
would be considerably lower if warming was
contained to within 2°C.
Some winners
Under a lower warming regime, there could
even be some benefits: Eastern Europe could
..lexpect to see measurably higher agricultural
yields, especially of wheat and maize.
In southern Europe, which will be both drier
and warmer, yields are expected to decline.
Irrigation may not be the answer: the harvest
from irrigated fields is likely to start showing a
decline by the mid-2030s.
By 2050, crop prices are likely to be depressed
by the impacts of climate change. In effect,
farmers could expect lower output, and on top
of that, lower incomes per unit of output.
And these calculations do not include the
direct impact of weather extremes – the
AgriKultuur |AgriCulture
heatwaves that shrivel seedlings, the
hailstorms and high winds that damage
blossom and so on – that are likely to be
amplified by overall global warming.
“Under a high warming scenario, several
climate impacts show a clear geographical
north-south divide. Most of the welfare losses
... would be greatly reduced under a 2°C
scenario”
Transport, too, will be at the mercy of ever
more intense and more frequent extremes
of weather. By the century’s end, 200 airports
and 850 seaports – large and small – could
be affected by flooding from either rising sea
levels or heavier downpours.
And the Mediterranean climate zone – with
its unique mix of habitat, ground cover,
biodiversity and crops – would become
increasingly vulnerable to droughts, fires,
pests and invasive alien species.
Labour productivity will fall, especially in the
south, and in some places, employers might
have to plan to shift some work to the cooler
night, with the additional costs of chronic
fatigue, anxiety and depression associated
with night work.
At 3°C, heat extremes could lead to additional
deaths per year up to 132 000. But even at 2°C
this figure could soar to 58 000 extra deaths
per year.
– Climate News Network info@
climatenewsnetwork.net
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