Accelerate May 2015 - Page 82

Resourcing & Rewards For example, births per thousand people between 2000-10 in Japan fell by -13%, China -16%, South Korea -29%, Singapore -33%, Taiwan -37% (Euromonitor International data). South Korea has one of the lowest birth rates in the world at 1.2 per woman (Mundy, 2013), with Japan little better at 1.3 (IBM, 2004). So, fertility rates are below replacement rates. One critical result will be labour force growth rate collapse and declining and ageing working populations and sclerotic labour forces. For example, labour forces (ages 15-64) 82 May 2015 between 2000-2050 in Japan will fall by -44%, South Korea -30% and China -10% (US Census Bureau International Database data). China’s working age population shrank for the first time in 2012 (Waldmeir, 2015). The other part of the demographic trend is an ageing of populations and more older people. China, by 2050, will face over one-quarter of its population being 65 years old and over (BBC News, 2012). This will result in fewer active people being responsible for more inactive ones. For example, in South Korea, numbers of workers per elderly person will drop from 4.5 to 1.2 by 2050 (Mundy, 2013). By 2020, in Japan, there will be three pensioners for every child under 14 (Collinson, 2010). Other impacts will be fiercer competition for shrinking numbers of younger workers facing increased family-related demands and responsibilities. There will be a loss of skills and expertise for organisations. Then there will be shifts in the supply, provision and demand mix within sectors, from education and healthcare, to pension provision as well as in products and services from manufacturers and providers.