2019 ROI First Quarter Edition 2019 - HIS Capital Group | Page 49

rate in that area, and several other factors such as the
likelihood of a natural disaster and the number and type
of crimes committed
5. Foreclosures are on the decline: Foreclosures have sharply
declined throughout the country compared to the Great
Recession. The foreclosure rate was .51 percent in 2017
compared to 2.23 percent in 2010, according to Attom
Data Solutions Real estate investors can be optimistic
about the industry in 2019, but not blindly so.
HOUSING OUTLOOK:
• One critical clue from the housing market has emerged
to suggest economic growth is likely to backslide, and
that is a steady decline in single-family authorizations. In
essence: Construction activity appears to be slowing.
of the country (apparently not in the West),” Romem
added.
• Furthermore, Single-family production declined 10% in
2018 to a rate of 816,800, while multifamily starts came
in at 473,000 units.
• Chicago saw the greatest increases defying national trends,
with new construction up 60.15% and maintenance up 19.51%,
which the report said could be a result of the city’s strategic
five-year housing plan to solve affordability problems.
Demolition activity has risen in the past five years
by 16.65% across the country.
• That said, Sales of new U.S. single-family homes
increased to an 11-month high in February and sales
for January were revised higher, suggesting that lower
mortgage rates were starting to lift the struggling
housing market BuildFax reported that California, Texas, Tennessee and
Florida have seen the greatest amount of demolition
activity in recent years, reflecting investments in those
areas. But note, while an uptick in demolition activity signals
opportunities for investment, 2010 is a good reminder of the
abandoned construction left in the aftermath of the crash.
research suggests intended projects are cut short when
timing aligns with an economic slowdown.
• Builders are proceeding cautiously after poor sales in Q-4
2018. Average days to complete the foreclosure process
is on the rise again:
• High levels of speculative new home inventory (homes
under construction with no buyer contract yet) have
forced many builders to offer financial incentives to sell
homes. FLIPPING BEHIND THE NUMBERS
2018
• Single-family housing authorizations what some call
a key predictor of economic recessions – represent
building permits requesting permission to commence
construction. In contrast, housing starts signal that
construction has already begun.
• According to the latest data released by BuildFax, single-
family housing authorizations fell for the third consecutive
month in February, declining 4.24% from the previous
month. This also represents a 5.75% decline year over year.
• ”The increase in new multifamily permitting the
overwhelming majority of which will feed into the
rental market continues to indicate that while the for-
sale market is cooling off, the prospects for multifamily
rental construction are improving, at least in some parts
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HIS Capital Group
This means all the gurus will begin pitching Short-Sale
programs again…..
• Top Major Market Flipping Rates in Memphis, Phoenix, Las
Vegas, Tampa, Birmingham; Almost $20 Billion In Financed
Flips in 2018, Up 8 Percent From 2017 to 11-Year High
• 207,957 U.S. single family homes and condos were flipped
in 2018, down 4 percent from the 216,537 home flips in
2017.
• The 207,957 homes flipped in 2018 represented 5.6
percent of all single-family home and condo sales during
the year, stagnant from 5.6 percent of all sales in 2017 but
up from 5.1 percent of all sales back in 2008.
• A total of 146,020 entities (individuals and institutions)
flipped homes in 2018, down .4 percent from the 146,623
entities that flipped in 2017 but up 63.1 percent from
89,539 entities that flipped 10-years ago.