2019 ROI First Quarter Edition 2019 - HIS Capital Group | Page 35

The last chart on GDP is net exports. The net exports picture is somewhat amusing. Net exports are down 100%,
meaning that imports have been growing faster than exports by a good amount. The interesting thing is that
the current expansion has been nowhere near what happened in prior expansion. Globalization – it’s a funny
thing to try to figure out sometimes.
Moving on to banks and job openings, both measures are healthy, with JOLTS perhaps too healthy. JOLTS (job
openings and labor turnover) have been dipping in recent months, coming down from their all-time highs. This
may be good in that it signals that the economy is avoiding overheating.
Switching to banks, banks often have a sense of where the economy is heading by whether they are willing to
make loans. At less than a 2% annual growth rate, bank loans are nowhere near flashing red signals that the
American economy is about to turn south. Instead, moderate growth is what bank loans are saying.
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