2019 ROI First Quarter Edition 2019 - HIS Capital Group | Page 11

It would also be surprising to see a recession with oil still in reasonably priced territory. Modeling the price of
oil in relation to the state of other indicators suggests that oil is at least $20 per barrel away from a recession-
indicator price level. With that said, something is different about oil this time. People used to say that the two
most important prices in the world are the price of oil and the price of money. That’s certainly still the case for
money. Oil, on the other hand, is still massively important, but may be losing its grip.
Consistent with the West Texas Intermediate signal, bank loans are also in good shape. No unsustainable
booming in banks’ lending practices – at least not in the formal lending market.
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