2019 Real Estate Market Analysis | Collins Group Realty Results_Market Report 2019 | Page 6
2019 MARKET ANALYSIS
STEERING FACTORS
The following are the key factors that we
expect to steer and guide the market as we
watch 2019 unfold:
Downsizing
These markets have recovered well beyond their previous
market-peaks of 2007-2008, yet most are showing signs of
a “shift” away from what has been a long-standing seller’s
market.
Buy vs. Rent
This trend is in full-swing across a surprisingly broad age
range as the merits of efficient, less-maintenance living are
being realized by empty-nesters and retirees ages 50 and up.
For many, it’s the most critical move of their lives, and we
expect to see this drive a high volume of transactions in the
2019 marketplace. Increases in long-term rentals have pushed the pendulum of
the buy/rent debate into the favor of buying, creating a new
wave of first-time homebuyers into our marketplace. Buoyed
by attractive interest rates and an overall increase in the
desire for home-ownership, we look for this important buyer
demographic to be especially active in 2019.
Condition, Condition, Condition , Interest Rates
While HGTV has shown the way to creative renovation
trends, many buyers in the Lowcountry market seem to
be hesitant to take on a large renovation project. As such,
properties that are new, newer, or recently renovated are
capturing a lot of buyer attention, often commanding a
premium in pricing. Likewise, properties that are in need
of varying levels of updating could require a thoughtful
strategy regarding condition and pricing in order to navigate
the marketing and sale process successfully.
Listing Volume
It’s fascinating to consider that, for the most part, Millennials
have never known interest rates to be over 5%, while many
others can recall the 30-year rate being as high as the upper-
teens. That said, bank-money is still relatively affordable,
and even though we expect to see rates continue to fluctuate
throughout 2019, this shouldn't be a major steering factor in
the market.
2019 Interest Rate
Predictions*
Look for 2019 to be a robust year for new listings to hit
the market due to overall improved market conditions,
an increase in local-moves, as well as an uptick in retirees
relocating out of the area to be closer to family, avoid storm-
related hassles, etc.
Feeder Markets
The health of the Lowcountry market (especially second-
homes and rental properties) depends greatly on the sense of
wealth felt by buyers that originate from our primary feeder
markets of which the current Top 10 are:
TOP
TEN
{
Origination
Markets of Online
Buyer Prospects
New York
Charlotte
Atlanta
Raleigh
Chicago
Washington, DC
Nashville
Orlando
Boston
Columbus
Are We Approaching a Recession?
Generally defined as two successive quarters of economic
decline, a recession is often viewed as a necessary correction.
In short, economic growth cannot continue unchecked, so
it’s reasonable to anticipate a correction - perhaps in 2020-
21. The key difference, however, is that we don’t expect
the next recession to create another housing crash like the
country (and Lowcountry) experienced in 2008. Amended
lending guidelines, more conservative buying/investing,
heightened home equity levels, and greater overall stability
in the housing market should go a long way to help keep any
significant housing crash at bay.
*Interest Rate Prediction provided by Keeping Current Matters