Мой первый журнал ISRS-Journal-АНГЛ - Page 49

Naturally, the leadership of the Taliban closely watching the ongoing processes and trying to take them into account in building such a model of an action that would allow the efficient use of the energy of confrontation between external actors in their own strategic interests. The ideal option for the Taliban would be for the United States to get into a situation of “strategic loneliness” in Afghanistan and in the region, which would hinder their freedom of maneuver and the ability to use regional transport communications to supply their contingents. Conclusion So, a serious narrowing of the conceptual possibilities of the “US-official Kabul” bundle today can actually be considered one of those factors that must be taken into account when analyzing and forecasting processes in the Afghan crisis in the foreseeable future. This is confirmed by the opinions that are increasingly heard in the Western media, which reflect the understanding of the presence of a conceptual crisis in American politics in Afghanistan and urge Washington to find at least some way to end this endless war, including the withdrawal of troops. A clear example is the opinion of Gil Barndollar, director of the Middle East study program at the Center for the National Interest (USA), who suggests justifying the withdrawal with the formula "declare victory and go home." He believes that this was what should have been done in 2011 after the elimination of Osama bin Laden. However, for now the main line of the White House will still be the policy of preserving its geopolitical positions in Afghanistan, and at least in 2019 the main trend in its policy will be to hold peace talks with the Taliban. Considering that next year, with a high degree of probability, it will also be possible to expect a new round of exacerbation of relations between the United States on the one hand, Russia, China, Iran and Pakistan, on the other; at the global and regional level, a serious intrigue will twist around Afghanistan, extract dividends from which the Taliban will certainly try. Therefore, most likely, we will witness a sharp increase in its activity in at least three areas - negotiation, military and information- which will further complicate the structure of the Afghan crisis and, as a result, make it difficult for Washington and Kabul to develop a new strategic concept. economic and military-political challenges. 51