Мой первый журнал ISRS-Journal-АНГЛ - Page 46

Faryab, half the garrison of 100 people died at isolated Afghan military base. In the east of the country, the Dzhangal Bag military base located on the strategically important Puli Khumri- Kunduz highway was attacked, killing 16 soldiers and policemen. An influential American New- York Times in an article on Afghanistan called these three August days a "catastrophe." 17 Afghanistan’s Minister of Defense Tariq Shah Bahrami, speaking in September 2018 in the Dy Mysrano Jirga (the upper house of the Afghan parliament), said that in August, as a result of fighting in 18 provinces of the country, primarily in Ghazni, Faryab, Farah and Uruzgan , more than 500 soldiers were killed 18 . Many publications in this regard note not only the increased activity of the Taliban and other groups, but also their improved fighting qualities, due to the fact that the militants had well-equipped and trained special units. Most likely, in the coming months of 2018, military activity in Afghanistan may decline slightly, since it is traditionally seasonal in nature, increasing in the warm season and decreasing in the cold months. However, the trend itself to intercept the Taliban of a strategic initiative is likely to continue to increase in the next fighting season. The Taliban are negotiating: A chance for a peace process or a tactical ploy? The complexity of the situation for the USA-Kabul bundle with the formulation of new conceptual moves lies in the fact that the time frame for finding a model for dismantling the two specified groups of calls is increasingly narrowing, since the pace of their mutual influence demonstrates the acceleration that is caused by fairly simple logic. As the main message, you can take the increase in demographic pressure. Despite the war, the population of Afghanistan has already exceeded 35 million people, and according to the forecast of the World Bank, by 2050 it will grow to 56.5 million people 19 . Due to the rapid growth of the population, 400 thousand people enter the labor market every year at the age of 17.3 years, of which only 200 thousand have the opportunity to find a job. 20 The remaining 200 thousand are either forced to emigrate, or join the ranks of criminal and terrorist groups, to look for work in the drug industry, which has become a source of funding for terrorist groups. In 2014, 411 thousand people worked in the drug industry. 21 In 2017 - already 590 thousand 22 . In this regard, it is no coincidence that the explosive growth in drug production in recent years (in 2017, the production of opium poppy increased by 87% to 9 thousand metric tons compared to 2016) coincided with an increase in military activity by the Taliban and ISIL 23 . To counter the opponents, the government is forced to devote more and more resources to support security agencies, which could be used in the implementation of economic projects. Also, instability in the country negatively affects the investment climate. The peculiarity of this process lies in the fact that at each next round of interaction and interpenetration of the two groups of calls will only increase and lead to a further deterioration of the overall situation. Against this background, only two options remain in the arsenal of the Donald Trump administration either to retain the leading role of the United States in the Afghan field or to further expand the size of their military group and increase the intensity of combat operations (model of George W. Bush and the first term of President Barack Obama "), or to convince the Taliban to begin peace negotiations. So far D. Trump took a pause in the matter of further increasing the number of troops and trying to rely on peace negotiations. In July 2018, American diplomats and the military were instructed to establish contacts with the Taliban to launch direct peace talks and discuss the future role of international forces in this country. In turn, the Taliban responded to the shift in Taliban Kill More Than 200 Afghan Defenders on 4 Fronts: ‘A Catastrophe’ By Rod Nordland, Fahim Abed and Mujib Mashal. Aug. 12, 2018. https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/12/world/asia/afghanistan-ghazni-taliban.html 18 Critics Slam Security Chiefs For Poor War Management by Tamim Hamid. 24 September 2018. https://www.tolonews.com/afghanistan/critics- slam-security-chiefs-poor-war-management 19 Quick facts about the population of Afghanistan. Current population (as of Saturday, April 07 2018). http://countrymeters.info/en/Afghanistan 20 Labor Migration Can Help Boost Afghanistan’s Growth. February 5, 2018. http://www.worldbank.org/en/country/afghanistan/publication/labor-migration-can-help-boost-afghanistans-growth 21 Afghan opium crop set for record high. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/nov/12/afghan-opium-crop-record-high-united-nations 22 Disease or Symptom? Afghanistan’s burgeoning poppy economy in 2017 by William A. Byrd. https://areu.org.af/wp- content/uploads/2017/11/1733E-Disease-Symptom-PN.pdf 23 Производство афганского опийного мака выросло на 87 процента: Обзор. https://www.unodc.org/unodc/ru/frontpage/2017/November/afghan-opium-production-jumps-to-record-level--up-87-per-cent_-survey.html 48 17