Мой первый журнал ISRS-Journal-АНГЛ - Page 44

According to the World Bank, the Ashraf Ghani government managed to slightly increase the GDP growth rate to 2.2% in 2016 and 2.6% in 2017, however, the Afghan economy is unlikely to be able to recover in the foreseeable future 5 . All this confirms the assessments that most of the economic growth in the period up to 2014 was generated not by the development of basic industries and agriculture, but by various kinds of orders from foreign troops. 4. High dependence of the Afghan budget on foreign financial assistance. Afghanistan has only partially created its sources for the formation of the national budget. In the national budget for 2017-2018, international assistance provided by 30 different donors, which is approximately 66% 6 . The World Bank points out that Afghanistan is “a unique country in its extraordinary dependence on foreign aid” 7 . Although it should still be noted that budget revenues as a whole grew by 1.75 billion to 2.5 billion dollars in the period from 2008 to 2018 including improving tax collection by 13% 8 . The four indicators above show that the US-Kabul combination needs a new concept for the creation and development of the Afghan economic basis, and it is here that the first serious difficulty is noted, since this requires two conditions of a quantitative and qualitative nature. The “quantitative” condition provides for a sharp increase in the scale of investment in the Afghan industry, agriculture, science and education. If this is done with the same degree of efficiency as it was in the period 2002–2014, when, as already mentioned, more than $ 103 billion was poured into the economy, Afghanistan will need at least another decade and several tens of billions of dollars with condition of stable internal situation. Kabul, naturally, has no such means. As for the United States, under President D. Trump, one can hardly expect large investments in the Afghan economy. Thus, in the costs of the military operation in Afghanistan in 2018, only $ 780 million was allocated for the provision of economic assistance 9 . In turn, the “quality” condition provides for a fundamental change in the psychological model of the development of Afghan society, which is a very difficult task. In fact, as observations show, in countries where there is internal instability and there is no firm confidence in the future, a certain part of society and the elite is criminalized and ceases to associate itself with its country in the long term, considering it mainly as a source of profit. From this, in turn, the problems of corruption, capital outflow, money laundering, and investing in those industries grow, which give a quick return on investments, including illegal areas such as drug production. A classic example is Russia of the 1990s, which turned into a supplier of raw materials, and was seriously criminalized according to some data in the period 1992-2000. According to various schemes, no less than $ 150 billion outflowed abroad. 10 Afghanistan is also an excellent illustration of this problem against the background of continuing military-political instability. According to the Afghan Ministry of Finance, approximately 65% of all financial resources in the country are illegally earned, transferred and spent. THE WORLD BANK PRESS RELEASE. Afghanistan’s economic growth to pick up slightly, World Bank Says. November 21, 2017. http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2017/11/21/afghanistan-economic-growth-to-pick-up-slightly-fall-2017 6 The State of Aid and Poverty in 2018: A new look at aid effectiveness in Afghanistan. Author: Jelena Bjelica and Thomas Ruttig. Date: 17 May 2018. https://www.afghanistan-analysts.org/the-state-of-aid-and-poverty-in-2018-a-new-look-at-aid-effectiveness-in-afghanistan/ 7 The State of Aid and Poverty in 2018: A new look at aid effectiveness in Afghanistan. Author: Jelena Bjelica and Thomas Ruttig. Date: 17 May 2018. https://www.afghanistan-analysts.org/the-state-of-aid-and-poverty-in-2018-a-new-look-at-aid-effectiveness-in-afghanistan/ 8 The 2018 Afghan National Budget: Confronting hard realities by accelerating reforms. Author: Bill Byrd and Kate Clark Date: 5 December 2017 9 Pentagon: Afghan War Costing US $45 Billion Per Year. Feb. 6, 2018. https://www.usnews.com/news/politics/articles/2018-02-06/pentagon- afghan-war-costing-us-45-billion-per-year 10 КАНАЛЫ УТЕЧКИ КАПИТАЛА ДЕЙСТВУЮТ ПО ЗАПАДНЫМ ТЕХНОЛОГИЯМ. 15 Марта 2001 г. https://www.novayagazeta.ru/articles/2001/03/15/12147-kanaly-utechki-kapitala-deystvuyut-po-zapadnym-tehnologiyam 46 5